COMING DOWN TO EARTH – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Certainly one of the major international events of the year was the so-called interim nuclear agreement with Iran.  This, theoretically, is supposed to lead to a permanent agreement that would make it impossible for Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

However, it's becoming clear that Iran has no such intention, and the interim agreement is filled with holes.  An analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Mark Hibbs, brings us back to Earth on this matter in a year-end post: 

If all goes according to plan, sometime during 2014 Iran will sign a comprehensive final agreement to end a nuclear crisis that, over the course of a decade, has threatened to escalate into a war in the Middle East. But in light of the unresolved issues that must be addressed, it would be unwise to bet that events will unfold as planned. Unrealistic expectations about the Iran deal need to be revised downward.

In Geneva on November 24, Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—plus Germany agreed to a Joint Plan of Action. For good reason, the world welcomed this initial agreement because it squarely put Iran and the powers on a road to end the crisis through diplomacy.

The deal calls for Tehran and the powers to negotiate the “final step” of a two-stage agreement inside six months. In the best case, the two sides will with determination quickly negotiate that final step. Iran will demonstrate to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that its nuclear program is wholly dedicated to peaceful uses and agree to verified limits on its sensitive nuclear activities for a considerable period of time. In exchange, sanctions against Iran will be lifted.

The final deal could emerge. But Iran and the West will continue to have major differences whether or not there is a final nuclear pact. Residual mutual suspicion is significant, and the United States and Iran have competing hardwired security commitments in the region. The United States will not pivot away from Israel and the Arab states in the Persian Gulf, and Iran will not abandon the Alawites in Syria and push Hezbollah to renounce force. The November deal will not lead to a transformation of the West’s relations with Iran, and the act of signing a deal will not mean Washington and Tehran have somehow overcome their multiple fundamental differences and become partners, as some observers either hope or fear.

COMMENT:  Well worth reading.  The Iran deal is a phantom.  The Iranians had big smiles on their faces when the deal was completed.  That told the story.  They got the better end of the bargain.

One key issue is timing.  The interim agreement hasn't yet gone into effect and will last six months.  Chances are, it will end sometime before our 2014 midterms.  But I wouldn't be surprised if Obama and Kerry figure out a way to extend it, so, if it comes crashing down, or results in further American concessions, the damage will be done after the elections. 

December 31, 2013